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December 6, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hot World, Chill Markets
November 27, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Market Finds Its Inner Peace
November 22, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Enduring Advantage
November 15, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The 4-3-2 Economy
November 8, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Markets Are The Guardrails
November 1, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Noisiest Ten Days of the Year
October 25, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: What’s Going On With Gold
October 18, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: When Tailwinds Become Headwinds
October 11, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Rates Go Down, Rates Go Up
October 4, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: More Treats Than Tricks
September 27, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Tailwinds of September
September 20, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: What To Expect When You’re Expecting a Rate Cut
September 13, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: China In 3D
September 6, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: September, True to Form
August 30, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The De-Inversion Cometh. What Next?
August 23, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: If It’s Late August, It Must Be Jackson Hole
August 16, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Apocalypse Not
August 9, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Notes From A Weird Week
August 2, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Any Excuse to Sell
July 26, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Economy Grows, Inflation Cools, Markets Hyperventilate
July 19, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Search for the Killer AI App
July 12, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: It’s Rotation Time (Or Not) Again
July 5, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Economy Slows, Businesses Grow
June 28, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: One Down, One To Go
June 21, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: It’s Prove It Time for AI Stocks
June 7, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: ECB, Alone
May 31, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Not Quite Dead Yield Curve Signal
May 24, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Exceeding Expectations
May 17, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Slowdown Is Here, and Markets Cheer
May 10, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The More Things Stay The Same
May 3, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: How the Bond Market Learned to Love the Fed
April 26, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Too Early To Call Stagflation
April 19, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Dollar Dominance and the Ghosts of 1997
April 12, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sideways, With a Splash of Uncertainty
April 5, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Oil, Jobs and Money
March 28, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: China’s Long Game
March 22, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Happiest Fed Ever
March 15, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Equity Investors Plow Through Hot Inflation
March 8, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sometimes, Good News Is Good News
March 1, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Nothing Changes Except the FOMO-Meter
February 23, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: AI to the Rescue, Again.
February 16, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Week of Mixed Signals
February 9, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Very Expensive, Or Just Expensive?
February 2, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: China Versus India
January 26, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Installment for the Goldilocks Diaries
January 19, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Yield Curve’s Tortured Path to Normal
January 12, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2024 Outlook
January 5, 2024 MV Weekly Market Flash: New Year, New Jobs
December 29, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Will Matter in 2024
December 22, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Very Good Inflation Number
December 15, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Pivot and the Puzzle
December 8, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Last Big News Cycle for the Market in ’23
December 1, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Growth Up, Inflation Down
November 22, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Story That Won’t Go Away
November 17, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japan, Still the Outlier After All These Years
November 10, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Europe’s Ongoing Malaise
November 3, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Non-Predictive Jobs Numbers
October 27, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Mixed Bag and a High Bar for Earnings
October 20, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: So Much for Bond FOMO
October 13, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Geopolitics and the Indifference of Markets
October 6, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hot Jobs, Hot Bonds
September 29, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Brief History of Markets and Shutdowns
September 22, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Wild Times For Safe(?) Assets
September 15, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Oil, Inflation and Consumers
September 8, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Petulant China
September 1, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Not The Cruellest Month, Perhaps
August 25, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Trade Winds Theory of Markets
August 18, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: It’s Wyoming Week Again
August 11, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Deflating Week for China
August 4, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Yields Rise for (Mostly) Non-Downgrade Reasons
July 28, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: End of the Cycle?
July 21, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: High Bar for Tech Earnings
July 14, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: International Equities Had a Minute, Until They Didn’t
July 7, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bonds in Wonderland
June 30, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Pretty Resilient First Half for US Equities
June 23, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Great Rotation Debate
June 16, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Will the Bond Market Listen This Time?
June 9, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Two Cheers for the New Bull
June 2, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Strangest of Job Markets
May 26, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Narrow Is The Gate For Outperformance
May 19, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: All Quiet On The Equity Front
May 12, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Tales of the Pause
May 5, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: What’s Next for the Economy?
April 28, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Debt Ceiling Drama, Past and Present
April 21, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Memos and the Market
April 14, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Uneasy Calm as Banks Report Earnings
April 6, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: How Confident Are Consumers, Really?
March 31, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Two Cheers for the Rally, and a Caveat
March 24, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Some Signals Amid the Noise
March 17, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bad Banks and Bad Bankers
March 10, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: What Today’s Jobs Numbers Tell Us
March 3, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Least Discussed, Most Important Metric
February 24, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: PCE Seals the Memo
February 17, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: No Landing, Or Delayed Landing?
February 10, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Making Sense of the Split Message
February 3, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fed Versus Market On Inflation
January 27, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Next Big Piece of Tech Real Estate
January 20, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Downgrades Bottoming Out?
January 13, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Euroscepticism
January 6, 2023 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2023 Investment Thesis
December 30, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Year In Three Phrases
December 23, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Due Diligence Is Due for a Comeback
December 16, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Market Intelligence, Or Not
December 9, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Oil Price Surge That Wasn’t
December 2, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Powell Giveth, Jobs Taketh Away
November 23, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: And Just Like That, Bonds Are Cool Again
November 18, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: FTX and the Blessings of Non-contagion
November 11, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Has the Santa Claus Rally Come Early?
November 4, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Strategic Case Against Emerging Markets
October 28, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Things That Go Bump In the Night
October 21, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Markets and Politics
October 14, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Here Come the Earnings
October 7, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Recessionomics
September 30, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Apoplexy In The UK
September 23, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: This Is a Cycle, Not a Crisis
September 16, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Margin Calls
September 9, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Better Here Than There, Updated
September 2, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: No Market For Old Hedges
August 26, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jay Powell’s History Lesson
August 19, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: What About That Recession?
August 12, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Dog Days Finally Arrive
August 5, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Mixed Take on Sales and Earnings
July 29, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Markets Wish Upon a Star
July 22, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Strange Times in the Bond Market
July 15, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Private Equity Not Immune from the Troubles
July 8, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Post-Distortion Economy
July 1, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings and Inflation Are Top H2 Concerns
June 24, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Europe’s Sea of Troubles
June 17, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Earnings Puzzle
June 10, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: What the Fed Can (and Cannot) Do About Inflation
June 3, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Good News, Bad News
May 27, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Go Away, or Stay to Play
May 20, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hard Landing for Retail
May 13, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Pain Trade
May 6, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Risk Is Not a One-Way Street
April 29, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Mixed Message on GDP
April 22, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Strong, With a Notable Exception
April 14, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: What Peak Inflation Does (and Doesn’t) Mean
April 8, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Cereal Problems
April 1, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Jobs Question, Short-Term and Long-Term
March 25, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Mixed Messages from the Bond Market
March 18, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Pullbacks Long and Short
March 11, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: For Now It’s Still About Inflation
March 4, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Decade of a Week
February 25, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sanctions, Shorts and Fat Tails
February 18, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fog of War…and Markets
February 11, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Bear of Low Quality
February 4, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Here Come the Bonds
January 28, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Glimpse of a New Economic Cycle
January 21, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Consequential Week Ahead
January 14, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Whip Inflation Now, Says the Fed
January 7, 2022 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs Report Sets a Strange Tone for the Year
December 30, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our Last Word for 2021: Stonks
December 17, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Importance of Doing Nothing
December 10, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Ignore the Rumor, Ignore the News
December 3, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Trouble Below Deck
November 24, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Staying Power of Exuberance
November 19, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Lagarde Effect on Euro Stocks
November 12, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inflation and the Bond Market
November 5, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Geopolitics, China and the Chamber of Commerce
October 29, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Confusion Awaits the Fed
October 22, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bankers Behaving Badly
October 15, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: An Unsteady Calm
October 8, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Strange Jobs Report
October 1, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Junk Party
September 24, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Confident Fed Contemplates an Uncertain Economy
September 17, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: First of All, Do No Harm
September 10, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Debt Ceiling Déjà Vu
September 3, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fourth Quarter Could Be Bumpy
August 27, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Emerging Markets? China, Asia, Not Much Else.
August 20, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: What’s the Point of QE?
August 13, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Killer Earnings, Fading Exuberance
August 6, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: NIRP and TINA
July 30, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: As Good As It Gets
July 23, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Decoupling and the China Dilemma
July 16, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Europe’s Summer of Woes
July 9, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Saga of Strange Bond Yields, Continued
July 2, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Oil 100 or Oil Bust?
June 25, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Toshiba and the Fragility of Nikkei 30,000
June 18, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Summer of Volatility?
June 11, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Not Much Ado About Inflation
June 4, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Macro Matters
May 28, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Big Oil’s Very Bad Wednesday
May 21, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: How’s That Rotation Working Out?
May 14, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Making Sense of a Strange Week
May 7, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs Numbers, Interest Rates and Tech Stocks
April 30, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: When Giants Rule the Earth
April 23, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: India’s Warning to the World
April 16, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Bitcoin Follies Go Public
April 9, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Calm Before the Storm, Or Just plain Calm?
April 1, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Grand Theories and Mundane Realities
March 26, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: What We Learned in Q1, and What May Await Us in Q2
March 19, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fed and the Bond Market Go At It Again
March 12, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: De-Mystifying Factor Strategies
March 5, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Perils of Chasing Innovation
February 26, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Tantrum Without a Cause
February 19, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bitcoin, the Solution In Search of a Problem
February 12, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Commodities Not-Yet Supercycle
February 5, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Mixed Signals and Fiscal Relief
January 29, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Sacking of Wall Street
January 22, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: No Rest for the New Team
January 15, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Curve Steepens
January 8, 2021 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2021 Investment Thesis
December 31, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Legacy of 2020
December 24, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Roaring Twenties?
December 18, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Case for Caution
December 11, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Europe’s Woes
December 4, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Momentum for the Moderates?
November 25, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Optimistic Case for 2021
November 20, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Considering the Vaccine Trade
November 13, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Indecisive Bond Market
November 6, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Politics, Markets and the Road Ahead
October 30, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Getting the Memo
October 23, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The China Question Looms Large
October 16, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Plenty of Room for Rates to Rise
October 9, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Return (Maybe) of the Infrastructure Trade
October 2, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Autumn of Our Discontent
September 25, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Is the Bear Market Actually Over?
September 18, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The New Old Economy
September 11, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: An Autumn of Uncertainty
September 4, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Options and the Price of Volatility
August 28, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inflation, the Dollar and Your Bond Portfolio
August 21, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Relativity Theory
August 14, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Caution, FOMO and the K-Shaped Recovery
August 7, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Everything Rally
July 31, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Markets, Tech and the Economy
July 24, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The EU’s Potential Game-Changer
July 17, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: China’s Old Playbook for a New World
July 10, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings At a Crossroad
July 2, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Jobs Report in Perspective
June 26, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Halfway There
June 19, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Calling a Bubble Is Relatively Easy. Timing One, Not So Much
June 12, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fear and Greed at Hyperspeed
June 5, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: 1968, and What Happened Next
May 29, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another False Dawn for Value
May 22, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Of Sports and Stocks
May 15, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inflation, Deflation or No-flation?
May 8, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Slow Emergence of a New World Economy
May 1, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Economy and the Market
April 24, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Strange Yet Rational Case of Negative Oil
April 17, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Nice Prices, Scary Valuations
April 9, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fed Is Not Dead
April 3, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Immediate Employment Crisis
March 27, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Stay Buckled In, For Now
March 20, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Great Bond Market Cataclysm
March 13, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: What Comes Next
March 6, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Mayhem In Four Charts
February 28, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Black Swan, Defined
February 21, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: This Week, An Actual Surprise
February 14, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Europe’s Ailing Economy and Happy Markets
February 7, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bull Story, Chapter Seven
January 31, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: What We’ve Learned Since the Ebola Panic
January 24, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Goliaths and Their Would-Be Davids
January 17, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: One Cheer for Phase One
January 10, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2020 Investment Thesis
January 3, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: As Goes Tech, So Goes the Market
December 27, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Year In One Word — Pivot
December 20, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Asset Repricing in 2020
December 13, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Volatile Underbelly of Stock Prices
December 6, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: UK Election Reflects a Failure of Imagination
November 27, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Will Politics Matter in 2020?
November 22, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Don’t Tempt the VIX
November 15, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Oddly Durable Charms of the Perma-Bear
November 8, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Kabuki and Valuation Math
November 1, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Calm Waters Ahead (For Now, Probably)
October 25, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Relentless Benchmark
October 18, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: No More Inversion…For Now
October 4, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Unicorns Are Not Alright
September 27, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Political Drama and Market Indifference
September 20, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Recession? What Recession?
September 13, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Great Rotation That Wasn’t (Again)
September 6, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Limits of Crazy
August 30, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Recession Trade
August 23, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Gold Bugs Go Institutional
August 16, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Managing Through Uncertainty
August 9, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: What We Mean When We Talk About Volatility
August 2, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Economy’s Mixed Message
July 26, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japan Led Us All to Wonderland
July 19, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Currency Wars, the New Trade Wars
July 12, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Cost of Easy Money
July 3, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings May Matter in 2H19
June 28, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Greenbacks in Wonderland
June 21, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Insurance Cut and the Melt-Up
June 14, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Risk-Off, With a Side Helping of Large Cap Equities
June 7, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Problem of Non-Quantifiable Risk
May 31, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Strange Curves
May 24, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility, The Good and The Bad
May 17, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Seven and Ten In China
May 10, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Performance Art of Trade Talks
May 3, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Most Important Metric Nobody Cares About
April 26, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Could Inflation Be the Wild Card Spoiler?
April 18, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: As Goes the Property Sector, So Goes China
April 12, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Bull Is In the Eye of the Beholder
April 5, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: What To Expect When You’re Expecting…Bond Returns
March 29, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Back to Wonderland
March 22, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Something’s Gotta Give
March 15, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The EU’s Weak Link
March 8, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sometimes Bad News Is Actually Bad News
March 1, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Value Investor’s Lament
February 22, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inflation Never?
February 15, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Return of the Corridor Trade?
February 8, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Troubled Technicals and Hyper Headlines
February 1, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: And There It Is, the Powell Put
January 25, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Why So Glum, Davos Man?
January 18, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Breadknives and the Algos That Make Them
January 11, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Season Darling Or Another Dead Cat Bounce?
January 4, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2019 Market Outlook
December 28, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Rule of 19.8 Percent
December 21, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Breathe In, Breathe Out, Repeat
December 14, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: China’s Rebalancing, Interrupted
December 7, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Slowdown, Recession or Recession-Plus?
November 30, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Does the Fed Put Still Exist?
November 21, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Theresa May and the Turkeys
November 16, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Defensive Rotation’s Uphill Climb
November 9, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Relief, Risk and the Big Unknown
November 2, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Four Octobers
October 26, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Narrative Battle Comes into Focus
October 19, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Italian Debt Job
October 12, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Four Takeaways from the Pullback
October 5, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bonds Away, We’re Okay
September 28, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Wages, Prices and Rates
September 21, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sector Spaghetti
September 14, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Law of Gravity, Post-Crisis
September 7, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Four Rate Hikes and an EM Funk
August 31, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fall Event Risk Outlook
August 24, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: What Record Bull?
August 17, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Pastor and the Peril
August 10, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Public Markets, Private Markets and Asset Allocation
August 3, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Great Rotation That Wasn’t
July 27, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Soybeans and Sustainable Growth
July 20, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Cash Equivalent’s New, Old Look
July 13, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Flat Curves and Rising Markets
July 6, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Second Half of Contradictions
June 29, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: China In Trouble For the Right Reasons
June 22, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The World’s Most Loved, Least Useful Stock Index
June 15, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Technocracy in Trouble
June 8, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility Heads for the Valley
June 1, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Summer of Europe
May 25, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: A World of Pain for Consumer Staples
May 18, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Baby Blues
May 11, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Populists March on Rome, Investors (Mostly) Shrug
May 4, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Eurozone Falling Out of Sync
April 27, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Well-Tempered Correction
April 20, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Emerging Markets Resilient, But Currencies Could Spell Trouble
April 13, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility Is In the Eye of the Beholder
April 6, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: 1-2-3-4, I Declare a Trade War
March 29, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: When Tech Sneezes, the Market Catches Cold
March 23, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Carlyle, Tolstoy and the 2018 Investor
March 16, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fork in the Road
March 9, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bad News Good, Good News Better
March 2, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Ides of March Come Early This Year
February 23, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hope Accelerates – Will Reality Follow?
February 16, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Dollar Is Sitting Out This Party
February 9, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Peril and the Promise of Higher Rates
February 2, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Miss for Productivity
January 26, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Market of Wandering Cats
January 19, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2018 Investment Thesis
January 12, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Exuberance and Edginess
January 5, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bomb Cyclones and Melt-Ups, Hello 2018!
December 29, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: People Are Calendar-centric; Markets Are Not
December 22, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Frothing at the Bit(coin)
December 15, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Yellen’s Lesson, Powell’s Challenge
December 8, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The China Syndrome, Again
December 1, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Groundhog Day in December
November 22, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Turkeys of 2017
November 17, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Still Quiet on the Investment Grade Front (Junk Jitters Notwithstanding)
November 10, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: More Fuel in the Tank for Energy Stocks?
November 3, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Tax Mania!
October 27, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bond Bull Goes for the Thousand Year Gold
October 20, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Market’s Next Big Non-Event
October 13, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: What’s Next for Emerging Markets?
October 6, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sunny Skies and Swan Songs
September 29, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Reflation Pony Returns
September 22, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inflation, Economists and the Rest of Us
September 15, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Will the Market Party Like it’s 1987?
September 8, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Giving Up on the Greenback?
September 1, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Marathon Bull
August 25, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Competing Narratives for Back to School Week
August 18, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Rocky Mountain High
August 11, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Drifts and Shocks
August 4, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bonds and the Limits of Historical Data
July 28, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Markets and Political Risk
July 21, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Copper, the New Texas Tea?
July 14, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Summer of Confusion
July 7, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: 2017 Halftime Report
June 30, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Prices, Rates and the Lowflation Era
June 23, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Confusing Times in Emerging Markets
June 16, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Market’s Leadership Problem
June 9, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Brexit Shrouded by (London) Fog
June 2, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Value Effect’s Time of Troubles
May 26, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Stocks Are From Mars, Bonds Are From Venus
May 19, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inconsequential Tremors
May 12, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fed and the Spread
May 5, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Popular Data, Invisible Data
April 28, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Hard, the Soft and the Ugly
April 21, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Eurozone Is Priced for More of the Same
April 13, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: End of the Complacency Trade?
April 7, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Noise and Signals in the Labor Market
March 31, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Dog Days of Spring
March 24, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Oddities Down the Risk Frontier
March 17, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Peak Populism?
March 10, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Crunch Time for “Secular Stagnation”
March 3, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japan and the Fifty Percent Curse
February 24, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Some Vague Hints of Discontent
February 17, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Political Risk and the Cloak of Invisibility
February 10, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Let the Real Brexit Madness Begin
February 3, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Contrarian Case for Europe?
January 27, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: GDP Matters, Productivity Matters More
January 20, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Shape-Shifters
January 13, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2017 Investment Thesis
January 6, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Valuation Ceiling’s Moment of Truth
December 30, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Dr. Pangloss’s Market
December 23, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Magic Numbers and Animal Spirits
December 16, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Return of the Dot-Plotters
December 9, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fiscal Policy and Its Limits
December 2, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Predictions Were 2016’s Biggest Loser
November 23, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Melt-Up Has Arrived
November 18, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Infrastructure-Reflation Mirage
November 11, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: One Question Answered, Three More On Tap
November 4, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Apocalypse Where? The Case for (Guarded) Optimism
October 28, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Quarterly Diversions and the Long Term Growth Mystery
October 21, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Whole Lot of Nothing
October 14, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Oil Smooths the October Glide Path
October 7, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fat Fingers and the Wisdom of Crowds
September 30, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: New Adventures of the Old Corridor
September 23, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: What We Learned from Policy Week
September 16, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: How Hard Is the Valuation Ceiling?
September 9, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Central Bank Declaration of Independence?
September 2, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Here We Go
August 26, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Janet Yellen’s Long-Term Angst
August 19, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Flash Crash of ’62, and Other Bear Market Anomalies
August 12, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Whiplash Week (and Month, and Year) for Oil
August 5, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Event Risk Italiano
July 29, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Consumers Spend, Businesses Save, Stocks Shrug
July 22, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: It’s Quiet at the VIX…Too Quiet?
July 15, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: When September Comes
July 8, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Trading Places
June 29, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: That Seventies Market
June 24, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: And Then There Were 27
June 17, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Tempest in a (British) Teapot
June 10, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Ten Year Bunds at the Event Horizon
June 3, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Picasso Jobs Report
May 27, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Risk in the Summertime
May 20, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bank of Japan Goes Full Hedge Fund
May 13, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Mopey Retailers, Perky Consumers
May 6, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs OK, Productivity Not So Much
April 29, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The BoJ’s “Bazooka” Backfires
April 22, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fifth Time’s the Charm at the Valuation Ceiling?
April 15, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: China Goes Back to the Sugar Fix
April 8, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Bovespa Bounce
April 1, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Learning to Love the Slow-Growth Recovery
March 25, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Underperforming (Non-US) World
March 18, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Welcome Back to the Corridor
March 11, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Quality Rally, We Hardly Knew Ye
March 4, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Still a Long Way to Go for EMs
February 26, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Nice Rally, But Don’t Get Too Comfortable
February 19, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Wages, Prices and the Fed’s Trilemma
February 12, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: NIRP Nihilism
February 5, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Headlines Heading South
January 29, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Kuroda Comes to Wonderland (Sort Of)
January 22, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Slow Burn Pullback
January 15, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: 2016 Investment Thesis: Executive Summary
January 8, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Think Before You Panic—Lessons from 1997-98
December 31, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: 2015 Markets in Review: Not Great, Could Have Been Worse
December 18, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Five Observations for a Post-12/16 World
December 11, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: 203 and Counting
December 4, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: One of Those Weeks
November 25, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Giving Thanks
November 20, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Adele and the Gross Domestic Product
November 13, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility: Peaks, Valleys and Mesas
November 6, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hello, Rate Hike
October 30, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Presidential Year Curse, and Other Popular Delusions
October 23, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Quality Rally or Melt-Up?
October 16, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Two Cheers for China’s Consumers
October 9, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Oil Rally: The Real Deal or Another False Dawn?
October 2, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs and the Limits of Monetary Policy
September 25, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Pullbacks of a Feather…
September 18, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fed At the Credibility Cliff
September 11, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Emerging Markets: An Unconvincing Quarter Century
September 4, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Goldilocks Versus the Bears
August 28, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Five Things We Learned This Week at the Crazy Farm
August 21, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Large Cap Fortress Breached
August 14, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: China, Reserve Club Dreams and the Fed
August 7, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Summer of Misery for Commodities
July 31, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: And Now…The Dog Days of Summer
July 24, 2015 MV Special Midyear Comment: The Current State of the Markets
July 17, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Economic Consequences of the (Eurozone) Peace
July 10, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Yet Another Week of Crises Deferred
July 6, 2015 MV Technical Market Comment: Greece, Europe and Global Asset Markets
July 2, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Not Dead Yet: Dividend Stocks in a Rising Rate World
June 26, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Euro Standard
June 19, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: …Baby One More Time – Party Like It’s 1998!
June 12, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Interest Rates and your Bond Portfolio
June 5, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Rate Hike? Buy the Pullback
May 29, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Reversing Reversals
May 22, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Summer of Tranquility, or Peaks Ahead?
May 15, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japan – Halfway to Zero
May 8, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Stunted Growth?
May 1, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Meh Market
April 24, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Brent Breaks Out – More Upside Ahead?
April 17, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fed Wars: Rosengren v. Bullard
April 10, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Emerging Markets: In Search of Lost Growth
April 3, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Tricky Currents Ahead
March 27, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Small Caps: Dollar Haven or Danger Zone?
March 20, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Kabuki in the Eccles Building
March 13, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Currency Conundrums
March 6, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Beware the Ides of March
February 27, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: NASDAQ Fever, v2.0
February 20, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Look Who’s Growing, Too
February 13, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Tale of Two Oils
February 6, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Growth Trumps Rates?
January 30, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility in 2015: Peaks and More Peaks
January 23, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Lower for Longer
January 16, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Retail Sales Slowdown
January 9, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs, Money and Growth
January 2, 2015 MV Weekley Market Flash: Divergent: The Different Worlds of the Fed and the ECB
December 26, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: You Can Go Your Own Way: The 2-Year / 10-Year Split
December 19, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Melt-up? Earnings vs. Animal Spirits
December 12, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Greek Drama, Act III
December 5, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bulls in the China Shop
November 26, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Giving Thanks
November 21, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Home Stretch: Charting a Course to 12/31
November 14, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Time for a Check-up: Assessing Performance in the Health Care Sector
November 7, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Russia: The Economic Cost of Geopolitics
October 31, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hello Goodbye: QE at Home and Abroad
October 24, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Right Back Where We Started From
October 17, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Growth Debate
October 10, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Crude Realities: Oil Supply Overwhelms Demand
October 3, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Never-Changing Story
September 26, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Dominant Dollar
September 19, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Nae Today, Sí Demà?
September 12, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Cupertino Circus
September 5, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs: The Great Opt-Out Continues
August 29, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Magic Numbers, Catalysts and Pullbacks
August 22, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Continent at the Crossroads
August 15, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Eurozone: The Fearful Trip is not Done
August 8, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Summer of Noise
August 1, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Yellen’s Dilemma
July 25, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Season 1, Efficient Markets 0
July 18, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hiccup or Catalyst?
July 11, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Yellow Card for Portuguese Banks; Markets Unfazed
July 3, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Tale of Four Commodities
June 27, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Stocks & Bonds: Everyone Gets a Trophy
June 20, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Money For Nothing And The VIX For Free
June 13, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Let the Dog Days Begin
June 6, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Negative Rate Wonderland
May 30, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Europe’s Elections: Less Drama Than Meets The Eye
May 23, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Where Did All The Risk Go?
May 16, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Split Market: How Will It Un-split?
May 9, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Send in The Crowds
May 2, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Planets Align
April 25, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Strange Case of European Bonds
April 18, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japan: Is the Sun Finally Rising?
April 11, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sector Stories
April 4, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: From the Eurobond to the “Flash Boys”
March 28, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Candy Crush: End of the Silly Season?
March 21, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Utilities: The Wild Ride Continues
March 14, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Event Risk Is Back
March 7, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Winter of Economic Uncertainty
March 7, 2014 Masood Vojdani on “How to make $1 million last”
February 28, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: China’s Currency Challenge
February 21, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Ukraine, Markets and the Geopolitical X-Factor
February 19, 2014 Understanding the ‘HR Gap’
February 14, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: What’s Next for Emerging Markets?
February 7, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility Gap Due To Close?
February 4, 2014 Who is ‘MyRA’?
January 31, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Market and the Economy
January 24, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Return to Risk-Off?
January 17, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Vanishing Trade Deficit
January 10, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs and the Fog of Uncertainty
January 3, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Pondering the “Big Melt”
December 27, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: 2013: The Year In Review
December 20, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Price of Certainty
December 13, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Where’s the December Effect?
December 6, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Economic Cheer vs. Taper Tantrums
November 27, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Giving Thanks
November 22, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Mystique of Round Numbers
November 15, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Perils of the Financial Tabloids
November 8, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: With a Tweet and a Prayer
November 1, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Growth Markets and False Dawns
October 25, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: How Now, Low Dow?
October 19, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Market Mind Games
October 19, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Next Up: 3Q Earnings
October 4, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Event Risk…and Relief Rallies
September 27, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Curious Case of the Volatility Gap
September 20, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Taperphobia
September 13, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Steady Tack into Taper Week
September 6, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fed’s Jobs Dilemma
August 30, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Thirty Days Has September
August 22, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Era of Glitches
August 16, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Inflation Question
August 9, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Is The “China Turn” At Hand?
August 1, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Dog Days…and Beyond
July 25, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Vanishing Act of Low Correlations
July 18, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Equities Fever
July 11, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bernanke to Market: Party On
June 27, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash:The Bond Bear’s Shadow
June 20, 2013 MV Market Flash: Hard Times for Hard Assets
June 13, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Rehab? Investors Say No, No, No
June 6, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japanese Equities Fall…and Fall…And Fall
May 30, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: From “Risk On, Risk Off” to “Risk Here, Risk There”
May 16, 2013 MVCM Weekly Market Flash: The Pullback that Still Isn’t
April 24, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Apple Embraces the Earnings Culture
April 17, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: A Tale of Two Ex-Havens
April 4, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: What’s Up with Emerging Markets?
March 21, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Cyprus: Fury Unites the 1% and the 99%
February 21, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Catalysts
February 13, 2013 1527: Hello, Goodbye?
February 7, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Flirting With the Bulls
December 19, 2012 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Happy Birthday to You, ETP’s!
November 21, 2012 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Reasons to be Thankful
November 6, 2012 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Election Fever Breaks, Eurozone Jitters Return
October 17, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Transition: Synthetic Rally to Organic Growth?
October 11, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Elections, Taxes and Investment Strategy
October 3, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Debate Over Jobs?
September 25, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Floors, Ceilings and “Kick the Can”
September 20, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Competitive Easing
September 14, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: QE3: The Two Key Questions
September 5, 2012 Midweek Market Comment
June 6, 2012 200 Days of Tea Leaves
November 4, 2011 Weekly Market Comment: Occupy Eurozone
August 24, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: It’s Ben Week Again!
August 8, 2011 Special Market Comment: Relatives and Absolutes
July 27, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: Safe Haven Economics 3.0
July 20, 2011 Murdoch, Markets and Mistrust
June 24, 2011 Special Comment: Postmodern Portfolio Theory
June 15, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: Pandora and the Zombies
June 9, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: A Slow-Burning Funk
May 24, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: Europe’s Woes
May 18, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: Peccadilloes, Policy and Prognosis
May 11, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: The Performance Paradox
March 16, 2011 Special Market Comment: Japan and the World
January 12, 2011 Midweek Market Comment
November 17, 2010 Technical Comment: Return of the Eurojitters
November 9, 2010 This Week in Global Markets: Technical Comment
October 25, 2010 This Week in Global Markets
October 11, 2010 This Week in Global Markets
September 16, 2010 Technical Comment: Basel III and Much Ado about 2019
July 29, 2010 Earnings and Confidence
July 27, 2010 The Apple of Our Eyes
July 12, 2010 The Week Ahead: The Market’s Dog Days
June 29, 2010 Midweek Market Comment: The Market’s Exquisite Philosophical Dilemma
June 7, 2010 The Week Ahead: The Friday Flop Continues and Japan Feels the Pain
May 19, 2010 Midweek Market Comment: Germany and the EU
May 3, 2010 All-American Bull
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August 30, 2024 | Weekly Market Flash | Arian Vojdani & Katrina Lamb, CFA & Masood Vojdani

MV Weekly Market Flash: The De-Inversion Cometh. What Next?

Thursday morning opened the same way every morning has opened since July 5, 2022 – with the Treasury yield curve inverted at the 2-year and 10-year maturities. That’s 786 consecutive days (counting weekends and holidays) of an inverted curve, the longest on record by far (the previous record was 624 days in 1978). But on Thursday, the difference between the two maturities was a scant three basis points, or 0.03 percent, suggesting that the end of this magnificent streak is fast approaching. Since an inverted yield curve is supposed to be a reliable harbinger of a recession, enquiring minds want to know what happens next. Let’s look at some past data, bearing in mind as always that what happened before is not necessarily going to happen again.

Inversions By The Numbers

We will skip over the very brief recession of 2020, because (a) there was no substantial yield curve inversion to speak of before it happened, and (b) it probably would not have happened at all if the economy had not been manually shut down by the powers that be in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Let’s look at the three recessions before that, starting with the so-called Great Recession of 2008.

The 2-10 Treasury curve inverted on December 27, 2005, a bit more than two years before the recession started on January 2, 2008. It flitted in and out of inversion for the intervening time, notching up 253 days of being inverted before resuming its normal (upward-sloping) shape on May 29, 2007. So there was about a seven-month gap between the end of the inverted yield curve and the beginning of the recession.

For the recession which began on April 2, 2001, the 2-10 curve tipped into inversion for the first time on June 10, 1998 and also went back and forth between inversion and normal for the more than two and a half years prior to the recession (241 days of inversion recorded). The last inversion occurred on December 27, 2000, about four months before the recession began.

Finally, the 1900 recession began on August 1 of that year. Ahead of that recession, the 2-10 curve inverted for the first time on January 5, 1989 and for the last time on March 19, 1990, a bit less than five months before the recession began.

Define “Near Future”

So what, if anything, does all this past data tell us about what to expect in the coming months? Well, let’s start with what economists normally tell us about inverted yield curves – that they presage a recession in the “near future.” Unfortunately, as the data we presented above show, there is not really a consistent definition to be applied to the term “near future.” Two years came and went between the first curve inversion and the 2008 recession, two and three-quarter years elapsed before the 2001 downturn, and about one and three-quarter years before the 1990 episode. And for each of those recessions, there was a gap of at least several months between the time the curve de-inverted and the downturn began.

All of which says very little for anyone who wants to bet on if and when a recession will occur this time. We are about two years and two months away from that July 5, 2022 start date for this cycle’s inversion. By the time we come back after the Labor Day weekend the 2-10 curve may – or may not – have resumed its normal upward-sloping shape for once and all. If it does, perhaps one could assume a four or five month gap – similar to the 1990 and 2001 downturns – meaning a recession commencing in early 2025. That time frame would seem to fit within the parameters of the previous cases.

The Expectations Game

But is that enough reason to build up a defensive portfolio position ahead of a putative economic downturn in the first quarter of 2025? We don’t think so. For one thing, the shape of the yield curve is in large part an outcome of expectations in the bond market. Expectations about the Fed, expectations about inflation, about the direction of interest rates elsewhere in the world, about the magnitude of the term risk premium, expectations about expectations, and on and on. To be perfectly honest, our confidence in the rationality of bond market expectations has diminished over the past two years – a period in which the market has forever been pricing in expected rate cuts that never happened (which could be a reason why this inversion has lasted for as many consecutive days as it has). In 2021 we witnessed the “meme-ification” of the stock market, and in 2022-23 that unfortunate trend made itself known in the bond market. Remember those six rate cuts that were going to happen in 2024, according to the bond market last December?

Mind you, we are not saying with any certainty that a recession won’t happen next year. We do see the economy slowing, and at some point that slowing could continue into negative growth. But we do not see enough evidence yet to make a compelling case for a strong defensive move out of growth assets and into safety assets. We will continue to assimilate the data, but our actions are very unlikely to be driven by whatever the bond market happens to be telling us on any given day.

Enjoy the long Labor Day weekend, and then buckle up for what may be some interesting times this fall.