MV Weekly Market Flash: The Great Bond Market Cataclysm - MV Financial
 
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November 20, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Considering the Vaccine Trade
November 13, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Indecisive Bond Market
November 6, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Politics, Markets and the Road Ahead
October 30, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Getting the Memo
October 23, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The China Question Looms Large
October 16, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Plenty of Room for Rates to Rise
October 9, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Return (Maybe) of the Infrastructure Trade
October 2, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Autumn of Our Discontent
September 25, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Is the Bear Market Actually Over?
September 18, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The New Old Economy
September 11, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: An Autumn of Uncertainty
September 4, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Options and the Price of Volatility
August 28, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inflation, the Dollar and Your Bond Portfolio
August 21, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Relativity Theory
August 14, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Caution, FOMO and the K-Shaped Recovery
August 7, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Everything Rally
July 31, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Markets, Tech and the Economy
July 24, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The EU’s Potential Game-Changer
July 17, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: China’s Old Playbook for a New World
July 10, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings At a Crossroad
July 2, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Jobs Report in Perspective
June 26, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Halfway There
June 19, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Calling a Bubble Is Relatively Easy. Timing One, Not So Much
June 12, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fear and Greed at Hyperspeed
June 5, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: 1968, and What Happened Next
May 29, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another False Dawn for Value
May 22, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Of Sports and Stocks
May 15, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inflation, Deflation or No-flation?
May 8, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Slow Emergence of a New World Economy
May 1, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Economy and the Market
April 24, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Strange Yet Rational Case of Negative Oil
April 17, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Nice Prices, Scary Valuations
April 9, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fed Is Not Dead
April 3, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Immediate Employment Crisis
March 27, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Stay Buckled In, For Now
March 20, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Great Bond Market Cataclysm
March 13, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: What Comes Next
March 6, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Mayhem In Four Charts
February 28, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Black Swan, Defined
February 21, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: This Week, An Actual Surprise
February 14, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Europe’s Ailing Economy and Happy Markets
February 7, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bull Story, Chapter Seven
January 31, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: What We’ve Learned Since the Ebola Panic
January 24, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Goliaths and Their Would-Be Davids
January 17, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: One Cheer for Phase One
January 10, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2020 Investment Thesis
January 3, 2020 MV Weekly Market Flash: As Goes Tech, So Goes the Market
December 27, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Year In One Word — Pivot
December 20, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Asset Repricing in 2020
December 13, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Volatile Underbelly of Stock Prices
December 6, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: UK Election Reflects a Failure of Imagination
November 27, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Will Politics Matter in 2020?
November 22, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Don’t Tempt the VIX
November 15, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Oddly Durable Charms of the Perma-Bear
November 8, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Kabuki and Valuation Math
November 1, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Calm Waters Ahead (For Now, Probably)
October 25, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Relentless Benchmark
October 18, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: No More Inversion…For Now
October 4, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Unicorns Are Not Alright
September 27, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Political Drama and Market Indifference
September 20, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Recession? What Recession?
September 13, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Great Rotation That Wasn’t (Again)
September 6, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Limits of Crazy
August 30, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Recession Trade
August 23, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Gold Bugs Go Institutional
August 16, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Managing Through Uncertainty
August 9, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: What We Mean When We Talk About Volatility
August 2, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Economy’s Mixed Message
July 26, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japan Led Us All to Wonderland
July 19, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Currency Wars, the New Trade Wars
July 12, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Cost of Easy Money
July 3, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings May Matter in 2H19
June 28, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Greenbacks in Wonderland
June 21, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Insurance Cut and the Melt-Up
June 14, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Risk-Off, With a Side Helping of Large Cap Equities
June 7, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Problem of Non-Quantifiable Risk
May 31, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Strange Curves
May 24, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility, The Good and The Bad
May 17, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Seven and Ten In China
May 10, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Performance Art of Trade Talks
May 3, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Most Important Metric Nobody Cares About
April 26, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Could Inflation Be the Wild Card Spoiler?
April 18, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: As Goes the Property Sector, So Goes China
April 12, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Bull Is In the Eye of the Beholder
April 5, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: What To Expect When You’re Expecting…Bond Returns
March 29, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Back to Wonderland
March 22, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Something’s Gotta Give
March 15, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The EU’s Weak Link
March 8, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sometimes Bad News Is Actually Bad News
March 1, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Value Investor’s Lament
February 22, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inflation Never?
February 15, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Return of the Corridor Trade?
February 8, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Troubled Technicals and Hyper Headlines
February 1, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: And There It Is, the Powell Put
January 25, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Why So Glum, Davos Man?
January 18, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Breadknives and the Algos That Make Them
January 11, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Season Darling Or Another Dead Cat Bounce?
January 4, 2019 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2019 Market Outlook
December 28, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Rule of 19.8 Percent
December 21, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Breathe In, Breathe Out, Repeat
December 14, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: China’s Rebalancing, Interrupted
December 7, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Slowdown, Recession or Recession-Plus?
November 30, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Does the Fed Put Still Exist?
November 21, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Theresa May and the Turkeys
November 16, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Defensive Rotation’s Uphill Climb
November 9, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Relief, Risk and the Big Unknown
November 2, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Four Octobers
October 26, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Narrative Battle Comes into Focus
October 19, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Italian Debt Job
October 12, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Four Takeaways from the Pullback
October 5, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bonds Away, We’re Okay
September 28, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Wages, Prices and Rates
September 21, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sector Spaghetti
September 14, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Law of Gravity, Post-Crisis
September 7, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Four Rate Hikes and an EM Funk
August 31, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fall Event Risk Outlook
August 24, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: What Record Bull?
August 17, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Pastor and the Peril
August 10, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Public Markets, Private Markets and Asset Allocation
August 3, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Great Rotation That Wasn’t
July 27, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Soybeans and Sustainable Growth
July 20, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Cash Equivalent’s New, Old Look
July 13, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Flat Curves and Rising Markets
July 6, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Second Half of Contradictions
June 29, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: China In Trouble For the Right Reasons
June 22, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The World’s Most Loved, Least Useful Stock Index
June 15, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Technocracy in Trouble
June 8, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility Heads for the Valley
June 1, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Summer of Europe
May 25, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: A World of Pain for Consumer Staples
May 18, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Baby Blues
May 11, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Populists March on Rome, Investors (Mostly) Shrug
May 4, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Eurozone Falling Out of Sync
April 27, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Well-Tempered Correction
April 20, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Emerging Markets Resilient, But Currencies Could Spell Trouble
April 13, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility Is In the Eye of the Beholder
April 6, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: 1-2-3-4, I Declare a Trade War
March 29, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: When Tech Sneezes, the Market Catches Cold
March 23, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Carlyle, Tolstoy and the 2018 Investor
March 16, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fork in the Road
March 9, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bad News Good, Good News Better
March 2, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Ides of March Come Early This Year
February 23, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hope Accelerates – Will Reality Follow?
February 16, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Dollar Is Sitting Out This Party
February 9, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Peril and the Promise of Higher Rates
February 2, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Miss for Productivity
January 26, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Market of Wandering Cats
January 19, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2018 Investment Thesis
January 12, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Exuberance and Edginess
January 5, 2018 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bomb Cyclones and Melt-Ups, Hello 2018!
December 29, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: People Are Calendar-centric; Markets Are Not
December 22, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Frothing at the Bit(coin)
December 15, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Yellen’s Lesson, Powell’s Challenge
December 8, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The China Syndrome, Again
December 1, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Groundhog Day in December
November 22, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Turkeys of 2017
November 17, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Still Quiet on the Investment Grade Front (Junk Jitters Notwithstanding)
November 10, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: More Fuel in the Tank for Energy Stocks?
November 3, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Tax Mania!
October 27, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bond Bull Goes for the Thousand Year Gold
October 20, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Market’s Next Big Non-Event
October 13, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: What’s Next for Emerging Markets?
October 6, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sunny Skies and Swan Songs
September 29, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Reflation Pony Returns
September 22, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inflation, Economists and the Rest of Us
September 15, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Will the Market Party Like it’s 1987?
September 8, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Giving Up on the Greenback?
September 1, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Marathon Bull
August 25, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Competing Narratives for Back to School Week
August 18, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Rocky Mountain High
August 11, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Drifts and Shocks
August 4, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bonds and the Limits of Historical Data
July 28, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Markets and Political Risk
July 21, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Copper, the New Texas Tea?
July 14, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Summer of Confusion
July 7, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: 2017 Halftime Report
June 30, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Prices, Rates and the Lowflation Era
June 23, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Confusing Times in Emerging Markets
June 16, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Market’s Leadership Problem
June 9, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Brexit Shrouded by (London) Fog
June 2, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Value Effect’s Time of Troubles
May 26, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Stocks Are From Mars, Bonds Are From Venus
May 19, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Inconsequential Tremors
May 12, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fed and the Spread
May 5, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Popular Data, Invisible Data
April 28, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Hard, the Soft and the Ugly
April 21, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Eurozone Is Priced for More of the Same
April 13, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: End of the Complacency Trade?
April 7, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Noise and Signals in the Labor Market
March 31, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Dog Days of Spring
March 24, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Oddities Down the Risk Frontier
March 17, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Peak Populism?
March 10, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Crunch Time for “Secular Stagnation”
March 3, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japan and the Fifty Percent Curse
February 24, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Some Vague Hints of Discontent
February 17, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Political Risk and the Cloak of Invisibility
February 10, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Let the Real Brexit Madness Begin
February 3, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Contrarian Case for Europe?
January 27, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: GDP Matters, Productivity Matters More
January 20, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Shape-Shifters
January 13, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: Our 2017 Investment Thesis
January 6, 2017 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Valuation Ceiling’s Moment of Truth
December 30, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Dr. Pangloss’s Market
December 23, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Magic Numbers and Animal Spirits
December 16, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Return of the Dot-Plotters
December 9, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fiscal Policy and Its Limits
December 2, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Predictions Were 2016’s Biggest Loser
November 23, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Melt-Up Has Arrived
November 18, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Infrastructure-Reflation Mirage
November 11, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: One Question Answered, Three More On Tap
November 4, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Apocalypse Where? The Case for (Guarded) Optimism
October 28, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Quarterly Diversions and the Long Term Growth Mystery
October 21, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Whole Lot of Nothing
October 14, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Oil Smooths the October Glide Path
October 7, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fat Fingers and the Wisdom of Crowds
September 30, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: New Adventures of the Old Corridor
September 23, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: What We Learned from Policy Week
September 16, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: How Hard Is the Valuation Ceiling?
September 9, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Central Bank Declaration of Independence?
September 2, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Here We Go
August 26, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Janet Yellen’s Long-Term Angst
August 19, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Flash Crash of ’62, and Other Bear Market Anomalies
August 12, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Whiplash Week (and Month, and Year) for Oil
August 5, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Event Risk Italiano
July 29, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Consumers Spend, Businesses Save, Stocks Shrug
July 22, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: It’s Quiet at the VIX…Too Quiet?
July 15, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: When September Comes
July 8, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Trading Places
June 29, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: That Seventies Market
June 24, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: And Then There Were 27
June 17, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Tempest in a (British) Teapot
June 10, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Ten Year Bunds at the Event Horizon
June 3, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Picasso Jobs Report
May 27, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Risk in the Summertime
May 20, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bank of Japan Goes Full Hedge Fund
May 13, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Mopey Retailers, Perky Consumers
May 6, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs OK, Productivity Not So Much
April 29, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The BoJ’s “Bazooka” Backfires
April 22, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fifth Time’s the Charm at the Valuation Ceiling?
April 15, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: China Goes Back to the Sugar Fix
April 8, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Bovespa Bounce
April 1, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Learning to Love the Slow-Growth Recovery
March 25, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Underperforming (Non-US) World
March 18, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Welcome Back to the Corridor
March 11, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Quality Rally, We Hardly Knew Ye
March 4, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Still a Long Way to Go for EMs
February 26, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Nice Rally, But Don’t Get Too Comfortable
February 19, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Wages, Prices and the Fed’s Trilemma
February 12, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: NIRP Nihilism
February 5, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Headlines Heading South
January 29, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Kuroda Comes to Wonderland (Sort Of)
January 22, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Slow Burn Pullback
January 15, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: 2016 Investment Thesis: Executive Summary
January 8, 2016 MV Weekly Market Flash: Think Before You Panic—Lessons from 1997-98
December 31, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: 2015 Markets in Review: Not Great, Could Have Been Worse
December 18, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Five Observations for a Post-12/16 World
December 11, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: 203 and Counting
December 4, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: One of Those Weeks
November 25, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Giving Thanks
November 20, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Adele and the Gross Domestic Product
November 13, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility: Peaks, Valleys and Mesas
November 6, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hello, Rate Hike
October 30, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Presidential Year Curse, and Other Popular Delusions
October 23, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Quality Rally or Melt-Up?
October 16, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Two Cheers for China’s Consumers
October 9, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Oil Rally: The Real Deal or Another False Dawn?
October 2, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs and the Limits of Monetary Policy
September 25, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Pullbacks of a Feather…
September 18, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fed At the Credibility Cliff
September 11, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Emerging Markets: An Unconvincing Quarter Century
September 4, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Goldilocks Versus the Bears
August 28, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Five Things We Learned This Week at the Crazy Farm
August 21, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Large Cap Fortress Breached
August 14, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: China, Reserve Club Dreams and the Fed
August 7, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Summer of Misery for Commodities
July 31, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: And Now…The Dog Days of Summer
July 24, 2015 MV Special Midyear Comment: The Current State of the Markets
July 17, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Economic Consequences of the (Eurozone) Peace
July 10, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Yet Another Week of Crises Deferred
July 6, 2015 MV Technical Market Comment: Greece, Europe and Global Asset Markets
July 2, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Not Dead Yet: Dividend Stocks in a Rising Rate World
June 26, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Euro Standard
June 19, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: …Baby One More Time – Party Like It’s 1998!
June 12, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Interest Rates and your Bond Portfolio
June 5, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Rate Hike? Buy the Pullback
May 29, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Reversing Reversals
May 22, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Another Summer of Tranquility, or Peaks Ahead?
May 15, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japan – Halfway to Zero
May 8, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Stunted Growth?
May 1, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Meh Market
April 24, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Brent Breaks Out – More Upside Ahead?
April 17, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Fed Wars: Rosengren v. Bullard
April 10, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Emerging Markets: In Search of Lost Growth
April 3, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Tricky Currents Ahead
March 27, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Small Caps: Dollar Haven or Danger Zone?
March 20, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Kabuki in the Eccles Building
March 13, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Currency Conundrums
March 6, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Beware the Ides of March
February 27, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: NASDAQ Fever, v2.0
February 20, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Look Who’s Growing, Too
February 13, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Tale of Two Oils
February 6, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Growth Trumps Rates?
January 30, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility in 2015: Peaks and More Peaks
January 23, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Lower for Longer
January 16, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Retail Sales Slowdown
January 9, 2015 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs, Money and Growth
January 2, 2015 MV Weekley Market Flash: Divergent: The Different Worlds of the Fed and the ECB
December 26, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: You Can Go Your Own Way: The 2-Year / 10-Year Split
December 19, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Melt-up? Earnings vs. Animal Spirits
December 12, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Greek Drama, Act III
December 5, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bulls in the China Shop
November 26, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Giving Thanks
November 21, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Home Stretch: Charting a Course to 12/31
November 14, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Time for a Check-up: Assessing Performance in the Health Care Sector
November 7, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Russia: The Economic Cost of Geopolitics
October 31, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hello Goodbye: QE at Home and Abroad
October 24, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Right Back Where We Started From
October 17, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Growth Debate
October 10, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Crude Realities: Oil Supply Overwhelms Demand
October 3, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Never-Changing Story
September 26, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Dominant Dollar
September 19, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Nae Today, Sí Demà?
September 12, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Cupertino Circus
September 5, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs: The Great Opt-Out Continues
August 29, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Magic Numbers, Catalysts and Pullbacks
August 22, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Continent at the Crossroads
August 15, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Eurozone: The Fearful Trip is not Done
August 8, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Summer of Noise
August 1, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Yellen’s Dilemma
July 25, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Earnings Season 1, Efficient Markets 0
July 18, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Hiccup or Catalyst?
July 11, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Yellow Card for Portuguese Banks; Markets Unfazed
July 3, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: A Tale of Four Commodities
June 27, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Stocks & Bonds: Everyone Gets a Trophy
June 20, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Money For Nothing And The VIX For Free
June 13, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Let the Dog Days Begin
June 6, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Negative Rate Wonderland
May 30, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Europe’s Elections: Less Drama Than Meets The Eye
May 23, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Where Did All The Risk Go?
May 16, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Split Market: How Will It Un-split?
May 9, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Send in The Crowds
May 2, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Planets Align
April 25, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Strange Case of European Bonds
April 18, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japan: Is the Sun Finally Rising?
April 11, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Sector Stories
April 4, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: From the Eurobond to the “Flash Boys”
March 28, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Candy Crush: End of the Silly Season?
March 21, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Utilities: The Wild Ride Continues
March 14, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Event Risk Is Back
March 7, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Winter of Economic Uncertainty
March 7, 2014 Masood Vojdani on “How to make $1 million last”
February 28, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: China’s Currency Challenge
February 21, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Ukraine, Markets and the Geopolitical X-Factor
February 19, 2014 Understanding the ‘HR Gap’
February 14, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: What’s Next for Emerging Markets?
February 7, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Volatility Gap Due To Close?
February 4, 2014 Who is ‘MyRA’?
January 31, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Market and the Economy
January 24, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Return to Risk-Off?
January 17, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Vanishing Trade Deficit
January 10, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Jobs and the Fog of Uncertainty
January 3, 2014 MV Weekly Market Flash: Pondering the “Big Melt”
December 27, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: 2013: The Year In Review
December 20, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Price of Certainty
December 13, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Where’s the December Effect?
December 6, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Economic Cheer vs. Taper Tantrums
November 27, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Giving Thanks
November 22, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Mystique of Round Numbers
November 15, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Perils of the Financial Tabloids
November 8, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: With a Tweet and a Prayer
November 1, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Growth Markets and False Dawns
October 25, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: How Now, Low Dow?
October 19, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Market Mind Games
October 19, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Next Up: 3Q Earnings
October 4, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Event Risk…and Relief Rallies
September 27, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Curious Case of the Volatility Gap
September 20, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Taperphobia
September 13, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Steady Tack into Taper Week
September 6, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Fed’s Jobs Dilemma
August 30, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Thirty Days Has September
August 22, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Era of Glitches
August 16, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Inflation Question
August 9, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Is The “China Turn” At Hand?
August 1, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Dog Days…and Beyond
July 25, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: The Vanishing Act of Low Correlations
July 18, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Equities Fever
July 11, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Bernanke to Market: Party On
June 27, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash:The Bond Bear’s Shadow
June 20, 2013 MV Market Flash: Hard Times for Hard Assets
June 13, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Rehab? Investors Say No, No, No
June 6, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: Japanese Equities Fall…and Fall…And Fall
May 30, 2013 MV Weekly Market Flash: From “Risk On, Risk Off” to “Risk Here, Risk There”
May 16, 2013 MVCM Weekly Market Flash: The Pullback that Still Isn’t
April 24, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Apple Embraces the Earnings Culture
April 17, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: A Tale of Two Ex-Havens
April 4, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: What’s Up with Emerging Markets?
March 21, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Cyprus: Fury Unites the 1% and the 99%
February 21, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Catalysts
February 13, 2013 1527: Hello, Goodbye?
February 7, 2013 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Flirting With the Bulls
December 19, 2012 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Happy Birthday to You, ETP’s!
November 21, 2012 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Reasons to be Thankful
November 6, 2012 MVCM Midweek Market Comment: Election Fever Breaks, Eurozone Jitters Return
October 17, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Transition: Synthetic Rally to Organic Growth?
October 11, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Elections, Taxes and Investment Strategy
October 3, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Debate Over Jobs?
September 25, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Floors, Ceilings and “Kick the Can”
September 20, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: Competitive Easing
September 14, 2012 Midweek Market Comment: QE3: The Two Key Questions
September 5, 2012 Midweek Market Comment
June 6, 2012 200 Days of Tea Leaves
November 4, 2011 Weekly Market Comment: Occupy Eurozone
August 24, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: It’s Ben Week Again!
August 8, 2011 Special Market Comment: Relatives and Absolutes
July 27, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: Safe Haven Economics 3.0
July 20, 2011 Murdoch, Markets and Mistrust
June 24, 2011 Special Comment: Postmodern Portfolio Theory
June 15, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: Pandora and the Zombies
June 9, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: A Slow-Burning Funk
May 24, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: Europe’s Woes
May 18, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: Peccadilloes, Policy and Prognosis
May 11, 2011 Midweek Market Comment: The Performance Paradox
March 16, 2011 Special Market Comment: Japan and the World
January 12, 2011 Midweek Market Comment
November 17, 2010 Technical Comment: Return of the Eurojitters
November 9, 2010 This Week in Global Markets: Technical Comment
October 25, 2010 This Week in Global Markets
October 11, 2010 This Week in Global Markets
September 16, 2010 Technical Comment: Basel III and Much Ado about 2019
July 29, 2010 Earnings and Confidence
July 27, 2010 The Apple of Our Eyes
July 12, 2010 The Week Ahead: The Market’s Dog Days
June 29, 2010 Midweek Market Comment: The Market’s Exquisite Philosophical Dilemma
June 7, 2010 The Week Ahead: The Friday Flop Continues and Japan Feels the Pain
May 19, 2010 Midweek Market Comment: Germany and the EU
May 3, 2010 All-American Bull
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March 20, 2020 | Weekly Market Flash | Katrina Lamb, CFA & Masood Vojdani

MV Weekly Market Flash: The Great Bond Market Cataclysm

We are all in the process of adjusting to a different life than the one we knew just a scant couple weeks ago. There is much that we still do not know about how the coronavirus crisis is going to play out in terms of the number of cases, the mortality rate, the scale of economic impact or the amount of time we will have to spend without in-person classrooms, sporting events, discretionary consumer activities and the like. And this uncertainty has fed into one of the wildest and most volatile weeks ever experienced in investment markets. Perhaps nowhere was the volatility more unprecedented than in the bond market. In the course of just one week, $109 billion flowed out of fixed income mutual funds and ETFs – that’s more than $80 billion more than the previous record outflow. By comparison, the total outflow from equity funds was $20 billion – still a big number relative to the average, but nowhere near as dramatic.

Investment Grade Rating, Junk-like Trading

In trying to understand what happened in the bond market this week, let’s start with a clear visual of just how unusual the pattern was in the relationship between investment-grade corporate bonds and US Treasury securities. The chart below shows the relative price movement between 10-year Treasuries and their 10-year corporate bond counterparts. We use two State Street exchange traded funds as proxies for the respective bond indexes.

As you can see, investment grade corporates trade very much like Treasuries in a normal market environment. There is a very simple reason for why that is so, and it is this: investment grade corporate bonds rarely, very rarely default. And if a bond does not default, there is basically no mystery to what you as a bond investor are going to receive: a stream of interest payments and full principal redemption over the life of the bond. Now, corporations are not as fully risk-proof as an obligation of the US government. So there will typically be a small premium (i.e. a higher interest rate) between the safest investment grade corporates and Treasuries. That premium will grow as you move down the credit rating tables from triple-A to triple-B (any rating below the S&P grade of BBB-minus is deemed non-investment grade, or junk status). Because of their high levels of safety, investment grade bonds are deemed appropriate for even the most conservative of investment portfolios

So What Happened?

Given the safety properties of investment grade corporate bonds, how can anyone explain that jaw-dropping divergence between corporates and Treasuries that we see in the chart above. Prices for the State Street Intermediate Corporate Bond ETF, the blue price trend line in the chart, fell by double digits from the prior high of March 5 to the low on March 19. Is there any rational case to make that the value of the bonds in this index fell by a magnitude of that size?

There is not. To understand why this happens one needs to understand that while the price of a pooled investment vehicle, like an ETF, derives its value from the properties of the underlying assets, there are instances when the price of the asset in the market diverges from the underlying value. There was panic selling in all asset markets this week. In the case of these corporate bond ETFs, the magnitude of selling put downward pressure on the price far in excess of the underlying value of the pooled securities – the bonds – in the ETF. The bonds in the portfolio didn’t default. Their likelihood of default did not change in any material way. Their cash flow properties – the interest and principal payments set forth in the bond covenants – didn’t change. What changed sharply, was investor sentiment that led to panic selling.

Will It Happen Again?

It may help to think about the investment grade corporate bond market this week in the same way that we think about the panic buying of household staples like hand sanitizer and bath tissue that we have seen in grocery stores and pharmacies over the past week. The panic buying has widely distorted the relationship between the price that one of these now-scarce items can fetch on the street and the very commoditized value implied by the prices we have long been used to in shopping for them. Nothing fundamental has changed in the underlying composition of these products – just in the highly unusual conditions causing this temporary distortion between price and value.

We think it is safe to say that, even in these highly unusual times, we will not be paying $50 for a bottle of hand sanitizer forever. Similarly, we expect that the price-value gap seen in the bond market this week will return to a more realistic relationship in the days ahead. This does not necessarily mean that conditions will completely return to the way they were before. Depending on the longer-term economic implications of the coronavirus crisis, which are still playing out, the risk properties of certain segments of the corporate bond market may change. For that matter, we may find ourselves accepting higher structural prices for certain health and hygiene-related consumer staples over a prolonged period of time. It’s too early to tell. But the extreme irrationality of the price-value divergence we witnessed this week is not likely to persist.

As always, we want to assure our clients and friends that we are working as hard as we can to absorb all the data and information we can as this crisis unfolds, to communicate with you, and to make the right decisions for your long term investment goals. These are not easy times for any of us. We are always available to speak with you in any way that will help alleviate your concerns.

MV Financial