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May 12, 2020 MVF Special Update: 5/12/2020
March 24, 2020 Arian Vojdani on Yahoo!Finance First Trade
March 2, 2020 Arian Vojdani featured on Yahoo! Finance
January 16, 2020 Arian Vojdani featured on Yahoo! Finance
December 17, 2019 Arian Vojdani on Yahoo! Finance
December 16, 2019 Masood’s Latest US News & World Report ‘The Smarter Investor’ Piece
November 7, 2019 Webinar for Small DC Employers: How to Get the Most from DC Health Link (Recording)
October 22, 2019 Arian Vojdani Featured on Bloomberg Radio Segment
October 22, 2019 Webinar for Small DC Employers: How to Get the Most from DC Health Link (Invite)
October 21, 2019 Arian Vojdani Quoted in CNBC.com Article
September 30, 2019 Arian Vojdani on Cheddar TV
September 30, 2019 Arian Vojdani on Yahoo! Finance
September 9, 2019 Masood’s Newest ‘The Smarter Investor’ Piece
August 19, 2019 Arian Vojdani featured on BNN Bloomberg
June 21, 2019 Masood’s Latest US News & World Report “Smarter Investor” Article
June 20, 2019 Arian Vojdani quoted in Yahoo! Finance piece
June 14, 2019 Arian Vojdani featured on Yahoo Finance
May 20, 2019 Chris Schaefer quoted in CNBC.com 401(k) Focused Article
May 10, 2019 Arian Vojdani quoted in CNBC.com Markets Piece
April 9, 2019 Arian Vojdani quoted in US News & World Report Article
March 29, 2019 Arian Vojdani quoted in CNBC.com Markets Piece
January 25, 2019 Arian Vojdani Quoted in Reuters Market Piece
October 31, 2018 Chris Schaefer Quoted in Investopedia Retirement Piece
October 23, 2018 Chris Schaefer featured in NBCNews.com Article
September 28, 2018 Arian Vojdani quoted in US News & World Report Article Focusing on Millennial Investing
September 19, 2018 Arian Vojdani Featured in NBCNews.com Article Focusing on Millenial Finance
September 6, 2018 Masood Vojdani’s Newest Contribution to US News & World Report’s ‘The Smarter Investor’
August 22, 2018 Arian Vojdani Featured in Fox Business Article Focusing on Tips on How to Start Investing
August 15, 2018 Chris Schaefer’s Op-Ed Piece Featured on BenefitsPro
August 9, 2018 Arian Vojdani on CNBC’s The Rundown
July 10, 2018 Arian Vojdani quoted in article focused money lessons from the Y-Gen
June 29, 2018 Arian Vojdani quoted in CNBC.com Markets Piece
June 12, 2018 Masood’s June Contribution to US News & World Report
May 30, 2018 Arian Vojdani quoted in Investopedia article discussing the Fiduciary Rule
May 25, 2018 Arian Vojdani quoted in Reuters Markets Article
May 10, 2018 Retirement Plan Workshop for Nonprofit Plan Sponsors: May 31st, 2018
May 8, 2018 Masood’s Latest Smarter Investor Contribution
April 19, 2018 Arian Vojdani quoted in the Wall Street Journal
March 19, 2018 Masood’s Latest Smarter Investor Contribution
March 5, 2018 Arian Vojdani quoted in Reuters
January 31, 2018 Chris Schaefer Quoted in NBCNews.com Article
January 30, 2018 Masood’s Latest Smarter Investor Contribution
January 3, 2018 Katrina Lamb Quoted in the Wall Street Journal
January 2, 2018 Arian Vojdani Quoted in the New York Post
December 29, 2017 Arian Vojdani on Fox Business News
December 29, 2017 Arian Vojdani featured in Reuters Article
December 6, 2017 Masood’s December Contribution to US News & World Report
November 7, 2017 Chris Schaefer quoted on CNBC.com
October 31, 2017 Masood’s Latest Entry to US News & World Report’s ‘The Smarter Investor’
October 31, 2017 Chris Schaefer Quoted on TheStreet.com
October 24, 2017 Arian Vojdani on Fox Business News
September 15, 2017 Katrina Lamb Quoted in MarketWatch Article
September 11, 2017 Masood’s Newest Entry to US News & World Report’s ‘The Smarter Investor’
September 5, 2017 Arian Vojdani Quoted in US News & World Report Article
August 31, 2017 Arian Vojdani Quoted in MarketWatch Article
August 17, 2017 Chris Schaefer quoted in TheStreet.com Articles
August 10, 2017 Katrina Lamb Quoted in Reuters Article
July 21, 2017 Katrina Lamb Quoted in US News & World Report
July 14, 2017 Masood’s Latest US News & World Report Contribution
July 5, 2017 Katrina Lamb Quoted in Wall Street Journal Markets Piece
May 18, 2017 Arian Vojdani quoted on CNBC.com
May 10, 2017 Masood’s Newest US News & World Report Contribution
April 13, 2017 Chris Schaefer featured in CNBC.com Retirement Article
April 6, 2017 Arian Vojdani quoted on CNBC.com
March 31, 2017 Masood’s March Contribution to US News & World Report’s “The Smarter Investor” Blog
March 15, 2017 Chris Schaefer quoted in US News & World Report
March 15, 2017 Katrina Lamb quoted in Bankrate Article
March 15, 2017 Masood’s Latest US News & World Report Contribution
February 7, 2017 Arian Vojdani featured in US News & World Report article
February 3, 2017 Arian Vojdani quoted in Reuters
February 1, 2017 Arian Vojdani on CNBC World’s “The RunDown”
January 31, 2017 Masood’s Latest US News & World Report Contribution
January 3, 2017 Arian Vojdani quoted in International Business Times Article
December 30, 2016 Katrina Lamb featured in US News & World Report Focusing on 2017 Outlook
December 28, 2016 Masood’s Newest US News & World Report Contribution
December 5, 2016 Masood’s Latest US News & World Report Contribution
October 31, 2016 Masood’s Newest US News & World Report Contribution
October 17, 2016 Arian Vojdani quoted on CNBC.com
September 29, 2016 Arian Vojdani on CNBC World Street Signs
September 27, 2016 Chris Schaefer Appointed to Lead Growing Retirement Practice at MVF
September 7, 2016 Masood featured in a Wall Street Journal Article Focusing on Yield
September 7, 2016 Masood featured in a Wall Street Journal Article
September 1, 2016 Arian Vojdani quoted in US News & World Report Article
August 29, 2016 Masood’s August ‘The Smarter Investor’ Contribution
August 10, 2016 Arian Vojdani Quoted in CNBC.com Markets Piece
August 10, 2016 Katrina Lamb Quoted in The Wall Street Journal
August 9, 2016 Katrina Lamb Quoted in MarketWatch Article Discussing Oil
July 28, 2016 Masood’s July Entry for US News & World Report’s ‘The Smarter Investor’
July 6, 2016 Katrina Lamb featured on NPR’s ‘Marketplace’
June 21, 2016 Masood’s Newest ‘Smarter Investor’ Contribution
June 2, 2016 Arian Vojdani featured on Bloomberg’s The Advantage
June 2, 2016 Masood’s Newest ‘The Smarter Investor’ Contribution
May 20, 2016 Arian Vojdani Quoted on CNN Money
April 27, 2016 Masood Vojdani’s Latest US News & World Report “The Smarter Investor” Post
April 15, 2016 Masood Quoted on MainStreet
April 15, 2016 Katrina Quoted in Kiplinger
March 24, 2016 Masood’s Newest US News & World Report post
March 17, 2016 Katrina Quoted in MarketWatch
February 11, 2016 Katrina Lamb quoted in Reuters
February 9, 2016 Why Investors Should Be Sleeping Easy “Smarter Investor” Blog Post by Masood
December 18, 2015 3 Key Considerations for Year End Financial Planning Article by Masood
December 7, 2015 Katrina Lamb – MarketWatch
November 30, 2015 Katrina Lamb – MarketWatch
November 25, 2015 Masood Featured In Private Asset Management Magazine
November 18, 2015 Masood Vojdani – The Street
November 13, 2015 Katrina Lamb – Bloomberg
November 13, 2015 Masood Speaks on CNBC
October 19, 2015 Read Masood’s Newest Blog Post on US News & World Report
September 24, 2015 Masood Vojdani featured on CNBC’s ‘The Rundown’
September 15, 2015 Masood Vojdani Now a Contributor to US News “The Smarter Investor”
September 3, 2015 Masood Vojdani featured on CNBC’s ‘The Rundown’
July 6, 2015 Masood Vojdani featured on CNBC World
June 8, 2015 Masood Vojdani featured on CNBC
May 18, 2015 Masood Vojdani featured in MainStreet
February 23, 2015 Masood Vojdani featured on CNBC.com
January 20, 2015 Katrina Lamb Quoted in the Wall Street Journal
December 29, 2014 Katrina Lamb Quoted in Bloomberg
December 15, 2014 Katrina Lamb quoted in Barron’s
December 8, 2014 Katrina Lamb quoted in the Wall Street Journal
November 12, 2014 Masood Vojdani featured in MainStreet
November 10, 2014 Katrina Lamb quoted in the Wall Street Journal
October 23, 2014 Masood Vojdani featured in the Wall Street Journal
June 5, 2014 MVF Research on Seeking Alpha: Return To The Valley of Low Vol
March 7, 2014 Masood Vojdani on “How to make $1 million last”
January 7, 2014 MV Financial Launches New Website
May 12, 2020 | Market Commentary Market Commentary, MV Financial Research Insights Market Commentary, MV Financial Research Insights, News & Events | Arian Vojdani & Masood Vojdani & Christopher Schaefer

MVF Special Update: 5/12/2020

To Our Valued Clients:

We hope you and your loved ones are staying safe and healthy during these challenging times. In keeping with our commitment to help you navigate these unprecedented economic conditions, we want to share our perspective on current developments in the financial markets.

As states and municipalities take the initial steps toward easing lockdown restrictions, our fellow citizens will emerge from isolation into a harsh economic reality. Around 33 million Americans had filed unemployment claims as of April 30, and some experts are predicting a high single-digit (or even low double-digit) decline in GDP for the year.

The Stock Market vs. Economic Reality

Yet, as is often the case, the U.S. stock market is decoupled from reality, as investors lurch between fear and greed. The S&P 500 hit its last high on February 19, 2020, before falling to a near-term low March 23. Since then, the index has recovered about half its losses and was about 14.9% below its February high on May 8. Over this same time period, bond prices have rallied and yields have fallen. This suggests that investors in both stocks and bonds are being guided more by emotion (and central bank policies) than economic fundamentals.

Given the stock market’s seeming resilience, some investors may be asking whether now is the time to become more aggressive with their portfolios and reallocate more to equities, to avoid missing out on a market recovery. At MV Financial, we think the simple answer is, “Not yet.”

The optimistic argument is that investors are looking past the immediate problems and banking on a future recovery. What’s wrong with this picture is that no one knows when that recovery will come, what shape it will take, and how much the global economy will differ from that which came before.

Aggressive Valuations and High Volatility

While the market has staged an impressive relief rally since the lows of late March, there is ample evidence that equities are decoupled from fundamentals. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on forecasted earnings for S&P 500 companies is higher than at any time since the fallout from the dot-com bubble at the beginning of this century. Valuations remain sky-high due to both rising stock prices and falling earnings forecasts since the beginning of this fiscal quarter. Given the pessimistic expectations for unemployment and GDP contraction, it seems clear that the stock market and the real economy live in vastly different neighborhoods.

Volatility, another important measure, remains very high. The average daily price movement (i.e. where stocks closed relative to where they opened) has been greater than 3.5% since early March, a degree of volatility that has no precedent for such a sustained time period. The CBOE VIX, an index that reflects the level of fear in the market, remains at very elevated levels relative to long- term averages.

Medical Progress vs. Magical Thinking

Unlike past economic downturns, the critical factor today is not macroeconomic headlines or corporate earnings projections – it is medical science. We still don’t have a full complement of testing and tracing capabilities to track and interdict the virus’s spread. We don’t fully understand the dynamics of antibodies in the systems of those exposed to and subsequently recovered from Covid-19. It is not possible to form a valid probabilistic economic scenario until we have a clearer sense of the pandemic’s future trajectory and a timeline to a medical solution.

In the meantime, it makes sense for investors to keep the riskier components of their portfolio weighted towards the lower end of strategic approved ranges. This should provide protection in a period marked by a high level of economic uncertainty, while at the same time offering adequate exposure to eventual growth opportunities. We believe this measured approach is a more prudent portfolio construction technique than either jumping into an aggressive equity position too quickly or, conversely, building up too large a cash defense.

Our view is that investors should hold out for more definitive evidence of medical progress before having more conviction about increasing their equity exposure. The origins of the present economic distress are unlike any we’ve seen in our lifetimes, but the time-tested prescription – mitigate on the downside, participate on the upside – remains valid in today’s market.